Why Ruto needs Uhuru’s betrayal to win 2022
The magic bullet would be to portray Ruto as the poor sacrificial lamb mercilessly bullied and forced to carry the heavy cross uphill to Golgotha by the very dynastic despots he previously suffered to save (Odinga’s, Kenyatta’s and the Moi’s).
As such any candidate enjoying the support of the current regime comes to the electorate stinking and smeared with a load of an ugly incumbency baggage.
At the rate Uhuru’s government is losing popularity, anyone banking on the regime’s endorsement will be no better than a cowboy coming to a horse race on a dead horseback.
Despite the formidable hurdles he has encountered so far, Deputy President William Ruto still remains the man to beat in 2022. Like a steeplechaser in his last round, Ruto however faces three giant roadblocks that only a heartrending Uhuru betrayal can avert.
Should he outmaneuver the so called negative incumbency baggage, voter apathy during the elections and contain the obvious post Raila-election-loss volatility, the hustler has the coveted white house on the hill all to himself. But will he make it?
Traditionally, incumbency is believed to up the chances of election victory but recent world trends prove otherwise especially in emerging African democracies.
Recent studies show that access to independent information(free from government’s manipulation) and level of public discontentment with the economy determine the degree to which voters vote to punish the incumbent or the candidate supported by government.
For instance Late President Daniel Moi could not gurantee a win for Uhuru in 2022. Also former US President Barack Obama only managed a slim win into his second term while its not clear whether former President Kibaki actually won his second term or not.
In the current Kenyan situation, the first two variables are at their highest. Kenyans are absolutely heartbroken with the ruined economy by Uhuru regime. Although some elements within government have tried to manipulate the flow of information through the traditional media, Kenyans have unlimited access on the ills and atrocities of the government through social media platforms.
As such any candidate enjoying the support of the current regime comes to the electorate stinking and smeared with a load of an ugly incumbency baggage.
Such candidate would also be obliged to run on government continuity platform while strongly defending its disgraceful legacy. On this strategy, Ruto would never make it. Who would vote a ‘madman’ defending the economic genocide perpetuated by this regime while pledging to perpetuate it?
By elbowing Ruto out and wedging himself into government Raila Odinga and ilk have shot themselves in the toe saving Ruto from this imbroglio.
Ruto, now effectively branded and believed a stranger in government has been offered the blessed opportunity to run on a regime-change ticket as an outsider and government opposition. This also places him at a vantage point to mercilessly shoot the state-sponsored candidate decampaigning him as status quo and dynasty.
For wise and scheming Ruto, this should be a walk in the park given that such a candidate would have to be defending the very regime’s soiled linen he will be circumstantially donned.
At the rate Uhuru’s government is losing popularity, anyone banking on the regime’s endorsement will be no better than a cowboy coming to a horse race on a dead horseback.
Furthermore, Uhuru-Raila having literally wasted their post-handshake era, Ruto will ably rebuff any poor-record criticism using the projects accomplished ‘before Raila spoiled our party.’
That as it may be, even after successfully navigating the first hurdle, Ruto still needs an emotive betrayal to cross the second mountain; voter apathy.
Unless strongly convinced and emotively whipped to go out to the polls, recent trends show that the Kenyan electorate wont just vote. In fact, with the unprecedented disillusionment levels Kenyans have today, courtesy of the current regime, 2022 voter turn out could hit the lowest in recent history.
(It is important to understand that the basic element in any campaign strategy is mobilizing a near 100% voter turnout within the candidate’s strongholds.)
In order to win, Ruto must give all Rift Valley voters as well as all his supporters across the country a reason strong enough to go out and vote.
With suave strategists, Ruto could easily turn Uhuru and cabal betrayal into a blessing turning the tides to solve this otherwise pragmatic problem.
In my view, should Uhuru, Raila and Gideon Moi officially kick Ruto out while forming the much anticipated coalition government and then the cabal reawakens Ruto’s ICC case amidst a spirited local persecution and prosecution, this would altogether provide Ruto the much needed springboard for voter mobilization.
The magic bullet would be to portray Ruto as the poor sacrificial lamb mercilessly bullied and forced to carry the heavy cross uphill to Golgotha by the very dynastic despots he previously suffered to save (Odinga’s, Kenyatta’s and the Moi’s).
This would magically whip his sympathizers’ emotions pulling all and sundry to the ballot to save the hustler and punish his ruthless,dynastic and cannibalizing betrayers.
In particular, this would be even more fruitful for the hustler in Central where majority already feel Uhuru has treated his longtime ally brutally.
However, should he overcome thus far, Ruto’s final duel would be with the ghosts of Raila Doctrine. According to Wikipedia, The Raila Doctrine simply states that, ” a presidential election can never be declared to have been free and/or fair unless Raila Odinga wins the election.”
Although rhetorically coined by lawyer Ahmednasir Abdulahi in 2013, Raila Odinga has indeed proved its validity disputing all presidential election results since 1997 at all times calling for violent and non-violent means of protest.
In fact Raila has twice held democratically elected governments hostage forcing his inclusion into the executive. This scenario would unless otherwise replicate itself incase of a Ruto 2022 win.
Yet by being the ‘government sponsored’ candidate or being part of the government coalition, Raila’s bitting power would be effectively dulled. He would be totally unable to deny the results let alone calling for protests and chaos.
It is this intricate situation that makes Uhuru’s betrayal, far from what many may believe, a much-needed asset for Ruto to secure victory. If indeed history repeats itself, maybe, it is time for 2002 history to reincarnate
