In Kenya’s political landscape, few counties exemplify electoral maturity and shifting voter consciousness like Vihiga. Compact in geography but expansive in political sophistication, the county has become a bellwether for merit-based voting, frequently shattering assumptions built around ethnic loyalty or dynastic entitlement.
Vihiga’s Political Evolution: From Sub-Clan Dominance to Issue-Based Voting
Vihiga’s politics were historically a contest among the county’s dominant sub-clans: the Maragoli, Tiriki, and Bunyore. Each group once leaned heavily on legacy names to assert influence—be it the Bunyore’s Erick Khasakhala and Sande Mukuna, the Tirikis’ Khaniri, Onamu and Mmaitsi, or the Maragoli’s Peter Kibisu, Bahati Semo, and the revered Moses Mudavadi.
Yet, as time passed, the weight of a famous surname has proven insufficient. Musalia Mudavadi, despite being heir to the towering legacy of his father Moses, suffered a bruising defeat in 2002 at the hands of political newcomer Moses Akaranga in Sabatia—a loss that reverberated well beyond Vihiga.
George Khaniri, another scion of a political dynasty, failed to capture the gubernatorial seat in 2022, a stinging reminder that pedigree no longer guarantees passage in Vihiga’s shifting electoral terrain.
ODM’s Strategic Consolidation and the Osotsi Effect
In both the 2017 and 2022 general elections, ODM not only captured the governor’s seat through Hon. Wilber Otichilo but also secured the Senate position with Hon. Godfrey Osotsi in 2022—delivering a decisive statement: Vihiga’s electorate had moved beyond parochial sub-ethnic affiliations.
Osotsi’s rise has become emblematic of this shift. As Senator, his performance has gone beyond the call of legislative oversight. From grassroots economic programs supporting women’s groups and youth initiatives to empowering boda boda operators, Osotsi has built a narrative of inclusive leadership rooted in service delivery—not identity politics.
2027: A Contest of Vision, Not Origin
With Governor Otichilo serving his final term, the 2027 gubernatorial race is taking shape. Senator Osotsi has already thrown his hat into the ring, announcing his candidacy on December 1, 2024. Since that declaration, his popularity has surged, largely thanks to his unifying call for a “one, indivisible, and progressive Vihiga.”
This rallying cry has resonated across all five sub-counties, effectively neutralizing competitors still clinging to sub-clan politics. In today’s Vihiga, such narratives no longer hold sway.
Caleb Amisi’s Vihiga Strategy: Desperation or Ambition?
It’s against this backdrop that Saboti MP Caleb Amisi’s recent political maneuvers have stirred unease—and ridicule.
Facing a formidable challenge in Trans Nzoia, where Governor George Natembeya’s star continues to rise, Amisi appears to be testing the waters in Vihiga as a political fallback. His recent “consultative meeting” with a handful of Vihiga MCAs in Kisumu has raised eyebrows and sparked speculation about a possible 2027 gubernatorial bid.
While the law permits any Kenyan to contest in any county, the timing and intent of Amisi’s move have drawn sharp criticism.
“He has unfinished business in Saboti. From the outcry over lack of sanitary pads in schools to poor infrastructure and insecurity, his constituents still need him,” said political analyst Peter Amunga. “He should clean his own house before thinking of expanding into someone else’s.”
Others view Amisi’s overtures as an opportunistic ploy, driven less by vision and more by personal vendettas. His past criticism of Musalia Mudavadi during cabinet vetting, followed by what many in ODM consider disloyal behavior, has isolated him politically. In Vihiga, his recent attempts are seen not as bold outreach, but as strategic overreach.
“Those MCAs weren’t endorsing him. They were just listening. It was a fishing expedition that yielded nothing,” said a source close to ODM’s county machinery. “Vihiga is not short of competent leaders. We don’t need outsiders parachuting in.”
Crowded Field, But One Front-Runner
The 2027 contest is already drawing notable aspirants: Janet Ominde, Hon. Omboko Milemba, Woman Rep Beatrice Adagala, and even Makadara MP George Aladwa are said to be eyeing the seat. But none currently commands the cross-county support that Senator Osotsi enjoys.
Osotsi’s strategic positioning, proven development track record, and resonance with the electorate’s aspirations have made him the clear front-runner—more movement than man.
The Verdict
Caleb Amisi’s flirtation with a Vihiga gubernatorial bid smacks of political desperation. In a county that has outgrown politics of entitlement and sub-clan arithmetic, his entry is seen as tone-deaf and out of step with the evolving aspirations of the electorate.
If anything, Amisi’s move has only solidified the belief that Vihiga is ready for its own—and that the future belongs to those who have walked with the people, not just those looking for a soft landing.
